Cost-Effectiveness of Youth Suicide Prevention Program based on Japan Police Suicide Statistics
Overview
A Tokyo-based mental health organization provides crisis intervention services and prevention programs aimed at reducing psychological distress and supporting at-risk individuals. As the organization seeks to engage more extensively with grant funders and evaluators, there is an opportunity to complement existing activity-based reporting (such as service utilization and program delivery) with additional outcome-oriented measures that many funders request.
This project focuses on analyzing Japan's national suicide statistics and estimating the economic impact of youth suicide, with an emphasis on potential policy interventions and their effectiveness.
Key Findings
Japan, 2024
- Youth population (ages 10–19): ~11,000,000
- Youth suicides: 799 deaths
- Suicide rate: ~7.3 per 100,000
Program Scale
- Youths reached: ~12,650
- National coverage: ~0.11%
- Channels: schools, workshops, crisis support
Estimated Impact
- Expected deaths (no intervention): ~0.92
- Assumed effectiveness: 25%
- Lives saved: ~0.23 (~1 life saved every 4–5 years)
- DALYs averted: ~15
Cost Effectiveness
- Total outreach & prevention cost (2024): ¥11,113,476
- Estimated lives saved: ~0.23
- DALYs averted: ~15
- Cost per DALY averted: ~¥720,000
Estimates are model-based, illustrative, and do not imply causality; actual outcomes may vary.
Interactive Data Charts: Age Group Analysis, Cost Loss Per Age Group, Suicide Leading Cause
Biggest Causes of Suicide Among Youth (10-19) in 2024
Program Methodology Costs Used in Analysis (Publicly Reported)
Outreach & Prevention Expenditures (2024)
| Public Education on Health & Promotional Activities | ¥7,954,200 |
|---|---|
| Collaboration with Other Institutions / Outreach | ¥3,159,276 |
| Total Outreach & Prevention Costs Used | ¥11,113,476 |
Program cost figures are derived from publicly disclosed nonprofit financial statements and are presented in aggregated form for analytical purposes.
Cost-Effectiveness of Youth Suicide Prevention Program (2024)
Table 1: Youth Reach Calculation (2024)
| Channel | Calculation | Youths Reached |
|---|---|---|
| School Awareness Packages (Indirect) | 145 schools × 300 students × 25% engagement | 10,875 |
| Suicide Lifeline Workshops (Direct) | 9 workshops, verified attendance | 500 |
| Crisis Hotline – Youth Callers (Direct) | 9,000 calls × 20% youth × 70% unique | 1,260 |
| Total Youths Reached | 10,875 + 500 + 1,260 | 12,635 |
Table 2: Impact Calculation with Explicit Formulas (2024)
| Step | Parameter | Formula / Calculation | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. National Baseline Data | |||
| 1 | Youth population (ages 10-19) | Japan census data | 11,000,000 |
| 2 | Youth suicides (2024) | National Police Agency data | 799 |
| 3 | Youth suicide rate | (799 ÷ 11,000,000) × 100,000 | 7.26 per 100,000 |
| B. Baseline Risk in Reached Population | |||
| 4 | Youths reached by program | From Table 1 | 12,635 |
| 5 | Expected deaths (no intervention) | 12,635 × (7.26 ÷ 100,000) | 0.917 |
| C. Lives Saved Calculation | |||
| 6 | Intervention effectiveness | Literature-based assumption | 25% |
| 7 | Lives saved | 0.917 × 0.25 | 0.229 |
| D. DALY Calculation | |||
| 8 | Average age at prevention | Assumption (youth program) | 17 years |
| 9 | Life expectancy (Japan) | WHO/MHLW data | 84 years |
| 10 | Years of life lost per death | 84 - 17 | 67 years |
| 11 | Total DALYs averted | 0.229 × 67 | 15.34 |
| E. Cost-Effectiveness Metrics | |||
| 12 | Program cost (2024) | Outreach + prevention expenditures | ¥11,113,476 |
| 13 | Cost per life saved | ¥11,113,476 ÷ 0.229 | ¥48,528,279 |
| 14 | Cost per DALY averted (JPY) | ¥11,113,476 ÷ 15.34 | ¥724,510 |
| 15 | Cost per DALY averted (USD) | ¥724,510 ÷ 150 (exchange rate) | $4,830 |
| F. WHO Cost-Effectiveness Threshold | |||
| 16 | WHO threshold (highly cost-effective) | 1× GDP per capita (Japan) | $34,000 |
| 17 | Times below threshold | $34,000 ÷ $4,830 | 7.0x below threshold |
| 18 | Classification | Cost per DALY < WHO threshold | Highly Cost-Effective |
Interpretation: Program prevents 1 death every 4.37 years (0.23 deaths annually), averting 15.34 DALYs at $4,830 per DALY which is 7× below WHO's highly cost-effective threshold.
Economic Impact Calculation (Per Life Saved)
Table 3: Lifetime Economic Impact and ROI Calculation
| Step | Parameter | Formula / Calculation | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Life Saved | |||
| 1 | Age at prevention | Average youth program participant | 17 years |
| 2 | Retirement age (Japan) | Standard retirement | 65 years |
| 3 | Working years remaining | 65 - 17 | 48 years |
| 4 | Average annual salary | Career average (Japan) | ¥4,500,000 |
| 5 | Lifetime gross earnings | 48 × ¥4,500,000 | ¥216,000,000 |
| 6 | Effective tax rate | Income + residence + social insurance | 25% |
| 7 | Lifetime tax revenue | ¥216,000,000 × 0.25 | ¥54,000,000 |
| Aggregate Impact (2024) | |||
| 8 | Lives saved (2024) | From Table 2, step 7 | 0.229 |
| 9 | Total economic value saved | 0.229 × ¥216,000,000 | ¥49,464,000 |
| 10 | Total tax revenue saved | 0.229 × ¥54,000,000 | ¥12,366,000 |
| 11 | Program cost (2024) | From Table 2, step 12 | ¥11,113,476 |
| 12 | Net economic benefit | ¥49,464,000 - ¥11,113,476 | ¥38,350,524 |
| Return on Investment | |||
| 13 | ROI (gross earnings basis) | ¥49,464,000 ÷ ¥11,113,476 | 4.5x |
| 14 | ROI (tax revenue basis) | ¥12,366,000 ÷ ¥11,113,476 | 1.1x |
Interpretation: Every ¥1 invested returns ¥4.5 in lifetime earnings and ¥1.1 in tax revenue. Net economic benefit: ¥38.4M.
Scaling Scenarios (Illustrative)
Table 4: Impact at Different Program Scales
| Scenario | Youths Reached | Formula | Lives Saved/Year | DALYs Averted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Actual | 12,635 | 12,635 × 7.26/100k × 0.25 | 0.23 | 15 |
| 2× Scale | 25,000 | 25,000 × 7.26/100k × 0.25 | 0.45 | 30 |
| 4× Scale (High-Risk Schools) | 50,000 | 50,000 × 7.26/100k × 0.25 | 0.91 | 61 |
| 8× Scale (Regional Program) | 100,000 | 100,000 × 7.26/100k × 0.25 | 1.82 | 122 |
Note: Scaling assumes linear relationship and constant 25% effectiveness. Actual effectiveness may vary with program scale and implementation fidelity.
Resources & Code
Full data pipeline, analysis scripts, and methodology documentation are available below.