Cost-Effectiveness of Youth Suicide Prevention Program based on Japan Police Suicide Statistics
The Problem
A Tokyo-based mental health organization provides crisis intervention services and prevention programs aimed at reducing psychological distress and supporting at-risk individuals. As the organization seeks to engage more extensively with grant funders and evaluators, there is an opportunity to complement existing activity-based reporting (such as service utilization and program delivery) with additional outcome-oriented measures that many funders request.
This project focuses on analyzing Japan's national suicide statistics and estimating the economic impact of youth suicide, with an emphasis on potential policy interventions and their effectiveness.
Key Findings
Japan, 2024
Youth population (ages 10–19): ~11,000,000
Youth suicides: 799 deaths
Suicide rate: ~7.3 per 100,000
Program Scale
Youths reached: ~12,650
National coverage: ~0.11%
Channels: schools, workshops, crisis support
Estimated Impact
Expected deaths (no intervention): ~0.92
Assumed effectiveness: 25%
Lives saved: ~0.23 (~1 life saved every 4–5 years)
DALYs averted: ~15
Cost Effectiveness
Total outreach & prevention cost (2024): ¥11,113,476
Estimated lives saved: ~0.23
DALYs averted: ~15
Cost per DALY averted: ~¥720,000
Estimates are model-based, illustrative, and do not imply causality; actual outcomes may vary.
Interactive Data Charts: Age Group Analysis, Cost Loss Per Age Group, Suicide Leading Cause
Biggest Causes of Suicide Among Youth (10-19) in 2024
Program Costs Used in Analysis (Publicly Reported)
Outreach & Prevention Expenditures (2024)
Public Education on Health & Promotional Activities
¥7,954,200
Collaboration with Other Institutions / Outreach
¥3,159,276
Total Outreach & Prevention Costs Used
¥11,113,476
Program cost figures are derived from publicly disclosed nonprofit financial statements and are presented in aggregated form for analytical purposes.
Cost-Effectiveness of Youth Suicide Prevention Program (2024)
Table 1: Youth Reach Calculation (2024)
Channel
Calculation
Youths Reached
School Awareness Packages (Indirect)
145 schools × 300 students × 25% engagement
10,875
Suicide Lifeline Workshops (Direct)
9 workshops, verified attendance
500
Crisis Hotline – Youth Callers (Direct)
9,000 calls × 20% youth × 70% unique
1,260
Total Youths Reached
10,875 + 500 + 1,260
12,635
Table 2: Impact Calculation with Explicit Formulas (2024)
Step
Parameter
Formula / Calculation
Value
A. National Baseline Data
1
Youth population (ages 10-19)
Japan census data
11,000,000
2
Youth suicides (2024)
National Police Agency data
799
3
Youth suicide rate
(799 ÷ 11,000,000) × 100,000
7.26 per 100,000
B. Baseline Risk in Reached Population
4
Youths reached by program
From Table 1
12,635
5
Expected deaths (no intervention)
12,635 × (7.26 ÷ 100,000)
0.917
C. Lives Saved Calculation
6
Intervention effectiveness
Literature-based assumption
25%
7
Lives saved
0.917 × 0.25
0.229
D. DALY Calculation
8
Average age at prevention
Assumption (youth program)
17 years
9
Life expectancy (Japan)
WHO/MHLW data
84 years
10
Years of life lost per death
84 - 17
67 years
11
Total DALYs averted
0.229 × 67
15.34
E. Cost-Effectiveness Metrics
12
Program cost (2024)
Outreach + prevention expenditures
¥11,113,476
13
Cost per life saved
¥11,113,476 ÷ 0.229
¥48,528,279
14
Cost per DALY averted (JPY)
¥11,113,476 ÷ 15.34
¥724,510
15
Cost per DALY averted (USD)
¥724,510 ÷ 150 (exchange rate)
$4,830
F. WHO Cost-Effectiveness Threshold
16
WHO threshold (highly cost-effective)
1× GDP per capita (Japan)
$34,000
17
Times below threshold
$34,000 ÷ $4,830
7.0x below threshold
18
Classification
Cost per DALY < WHO threshold
Highly Cost-Effective
Interpretation: Program prevents 1 death every 4.37 years (0.23 deaths annually), averting 15.34 DALYs at $4,830 per DALY which is 7× below WHO's highly cost-effective threshold.
Economic Value Calculation (Per Life Saved)
Table 3: Lifetime Economic Value and ROI Calculation
Step
Parameter
Formula / Calculation
Value
Per Life Saved
1
Age at prevention
Average youth program participant
17 years
2
Retirement age (Japan)
Standard retirement
65 years
3
Working years remaining
65 - 17
48 years
4
Average annual salary
Career average (Japan)
¥4,500,000
5
Lifetime gross earnings
48 × ¥4,500,000
¥216,000,000
6
Effective tax rate
Income + residence + social insurance
25%
7
Lifetime tax revenue
¥216,000,000 × 0.25
¥54,000,000
Aggregate Impact (2024)
8
Lives saved (2024)
From Table 2, step 7
0.229
9
Total economic value saved
0.229 × ¥216,000,000
¥49,464,000
10
Total tax revenue saved
0.229 × ¥54,000,000
¥12,366,000
11
Program cost (2024)
From Table 2, step 12
¥11,113,476
12
Net economic benefit
¥49,464,000 - ¥11,113,476
¥38,350,524
Return on Investment
13
ROI (gross earnings basis)
¥49,464,000 ÷ ¥11,113,476
4.5x
14
ROI (tax revenue basis)
¥12,366,000 ÷ ¥11,113,476
1.1x
Interpretation: Every ¥1 invested returns ¥4.5 in lifetime earnings and ¥1.1 in tax revenue. Net economic benefit: ¥38.4M.
Scaling Scenarios (Illustrative)
Table 4: Impact at Different Program Scales
Scenario
Youths Reached
Formula
Lives Saved/Year
DALYs Averted
2024 Actual
12,635
12,635 × 7.26/100k × 0.25
0.23
15
2× Scale
25,000
25,000 × 7.26/100k × 0.25
0.45
30
4× Scale (High-Risk Schools)
50,000
50,000 × 7.26/100k × 0.25
0.91
61
8× Scale (Regional Program)
100,000
100,000 × 7.26/100k × 0.25
1.82
122
Note: Scaling assumes linear relationship and constant 25% effectiveness. Actual effectiveness may vary with program scale and implementation fidelity.
